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Exponential Population Growth

MATH162
Reference: Stewart 6.5  •  Chapter: 6  •  Section: 5

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Exponential Population Growth

Predicting the Unpredictable

In 1798, Thomas Malthus warned that human population grows exponentially while food production grows linearly—a recipe for disaster. While his dire predictions haven't fully materialized, the mathematics of population growth remains crucial for ecologists, epidemiologists, and urban planners.

The key insight: when resources are unlimited, populations grow at a rate proportional to their size. A population of 1000 bacteria produces more offspring than a population of 100, simply because there are more parents. This proportional relationship leads directly to exponential growth.

Before You Start

Quick Self-Check
  1. What is the general solution to $\frac{dy}{dt} = ky$? → Exponential Growth ODE
  1. Solve for $k$: $e^{4k} = 3$ → Natural Logarithm

If you struggled with either question, review the linked prerequisite first.

Prerequisite Map

This skill
Population Growth
Unlocks
Logistic GrowthEpidemiological Models

Quick Reference

Property Value
Concept Differential Equations
Chapter 6, Section 5
Difficulty Intermediate
Time ~15 minutes

Key Concepts

The Population Model

If $P(t)$ is population at time $t$, and growth is proportional to size:

$$\frac{dP}{dt} = kP$$

The solution is:

$$\boxed{P(t) = P_0 e^{kt}}$$

where $P_0 = P(0)$ is the initial population.

Relative Growth Rate

The relative growth rate is:

$$\frac{dP/dt}{P} = k$$

This is the growth rate per capita—the rate of change divided by current population.

$k$ value Meaning
$k = 0.02$ 2% growth per time unit
$k = 0.05$ 5% growth per time unit
$k = -0.01$ 1% decline per time unit

Finding $k$ from Two Data Points

Given $P(t_1) = P_1$ and $P(t_2) = P_2$:

$$P_1 = P_0 e^{kt_1} \quad \text{and} \quad P_2 = P_0 e^{kt_2}$$

Dividing: $$\frac{P_2}{P_1} = e^{k(t_2 - t_1)}$$

Solving for $k$: $$\boxed{k = \frac{\ln(P_2/P_1)}{t_2 - t_1}}$$

Doubling Time

The doubling time $T_d$ is how long it takes the population to double:

$$P_0 e^{kT_d} = 2P_0$$ $$e^{kT_d} = 2$$ $$\boxed{T_d = \frac{\ln 2}{k} \approx \frac{0.693}{k}}$$

The Rule of 70: If growth rate is $r\%$ per year, doubling time $\approx \frac{70}{r}$ years.

Limitations of the Model

Exponential growth assumes:

Real populations eventually face limits, leading to logistic growth models.

Common Pitfalls

Mistake Why It's Wrong Correct Approach
Confusing "2% growth rate" with "2% more each year" If $k = 0.02$, after 1 year you have $e^{0.02} \approx 1.0202$, slightly more than 2% Use the exponential formula; don't round
Using the wrong formula for $k$ $k \neq \frac{P_2 - P_1}{t_2 - t_1}$ (that's linear growth) Use $k = \frac{\ln(P_2/P_1)}{t_2 - t_1}$
Expecting exponential growth forever Real populations hit carrying capacity Exponential models are short-term approximations
Doubling time confusion Doubling time depends only on $k$, not on $P_0$ $T_d = \frac{\ln 2}{k}$ always
Mixing time units If $k$ is per year, $t$ must be in years Convert all times to consistent units

Worked Example

Problem: A bacterial culture has 500 cells initially. After 3 hours, the population is 4000 cells. Assuming exponential growth:

(a) Find the relative growth rate $k$. (b) Write the population function $P(t)$. (c) Find the population after 5 hours. (d) When will the population reach 100,000?

Solution:

(a) Using the formula for $k$: $$k = \frac{\ln(P_2/P_1)}{t_2 - t_1} = \frac{\ln(4000/500)}{3 - 0} = \frac{\ln 8}{3} = \frac{3\ln 2}{3} = \ln 2 \approx 0.693$$

The relative growth rate is about 69.3% per hour.

(b) The population function: $$P(t) = 500e^{(\ln 2)t} = 500 \cdot 2^t$$

(c) After 5 hours: $$P(5) = 500 \cdot 2^5 = 500 \cdot 32 = 16,000 \text{ cells}$$

(d) Solve $P(t) = 100,000$: $$500 \cdot 2^t = 100000$$ $$2^t = 200$$ $$t = \log_2 200 = \frac{\ln 200}{\ln 2} \approx 7.64 \text{ hours}$$

Practice Problems

Level 1 Direct Calculation

A population grows exponentially with $k = 0.04$ per year. If the initial population is 5000, what is the population after 10 years?

Thought Process

Direct application of $P(t) = P_0 e^{kt}$ with $P_0 = 5000$, $k = 0.04$, and $t = 10$.

Show Answer

$$P(10) = 5000e^{0.04 \times 10} = 5000e^{0.4} \approx 5000 \times 1.492 = 7459$$

The population after 10 years is approximately 7459.

Level 2 Finding the Growth Rate

A city's population was 120,000 in 2000 and 156,000 in 2020. Assuming exponential growth, find the relative growth rate as a percentage.

Thought Process

Use $k = \frac{\ln(P_2/P_1)}{t_2 - t_1}$ with $P_1 = 120000$, $P_2 = 156000$, and $\Delta t = 20$ years.

Show Answer

$$k = \frac{\ln(156000/120000)}{20} = \frac{\ln(1.3)}{20} = \frac{0.262}{20} = 0.0131$$

The relative growth rate is approximately 1.31% per year.

Level 3 Predicting Future Population

A deer population in a forest was 80 in 2015 and 125 in 2022.

  1. Find the relative growth rate.
  2. Predict the population in 2030.
  3. Find the doubling time.
Thought Process

(a) Find $k$ from the two data points (7 years apart). (b) Use $P(t) = P_0 e^{kt}$ to predict, with $t = 15$ (years since 2015). (c) Use $T_d = \frac{\ln 2}{k}$.

Show Answer

(a) Growth rate: $$k = \frac{\ln(125/80)}{7} = \frac{\ln(1.5625)}{7} = \frac{0.446}{7} \approx 0.0638$$

The relative growth rate is about 6.38% per year.

(b) Population in 2030 ($t = 15$): $$P(15) = 80e^{0.0638 \times 15} = 80e^{0.957} \approx 80 \times 2.60 = 208$$

Predicted population: approximately 208 deer.

(c) Doubling time: $$T_d = \frac{\ln 2}{0.0638} = \frac{0.693}{0.0638} \approx 10.9 \text{ years}$$

Level 4 Working Backward

A population triples every 8 years.

  1. Find the relative growth rate $k$.
  2. How long does it take for the population to increase by 50%?
  3. If the population is 10,000 now, what was it 5 years ago?
Thought Process

(a) Tripling means $e^{8k} = 3$, so $k = \frac{\ln 3}{8}$. (b) Solve $e^{kt} = 1.5$ for $t$. (c) Work backward: $10000 = P_{-5} e^{5k}$, solve for $P_{-5}$.

Show Answer

(a) From tripling in 8 years: $$e^{8k} = 3 \implies k = \frac{\ln 3}{8} \approx 0.1373$$

(b) For 50% increase ($P = 1.5P_0$): $$e^{kt} = 1.5$$ $$t = \frac{\ln 1.5}{k} = \frac{\ln 1.5}{\ln 3/8} = \frac{8\ln 1.5}{\ln 3} \approx 2.95 \text{ years}$$

(c) Five years ago: $$10000 = P_{-5} \cdot e^{5k} = P_{-5} \cdot e^{5 \cdot 0.1373}$$ $$P_{-5} = \frac{10000}{e^{0.6865}} = \frac{10000}{1.987} \approx 5033$$

The population was approximately 5033 five years ago.

Level 5 Comparing Growth Models

Country A has population 50 million with 1.5% annual growth. Country B has population 200 million with 0.5% annual growth.

  1. Write population functions for both countries.
  2. When will the populations be equal?
  3. Show that if two populations have exponential growth with rates $k_1$ and $k_2$ (where $k_1 > k_2$), they will eventually be equal regardless of initial populations (assuming $P_{01} < P_{02}$).
Thought Process

(a) Use $P(t) = P_0 e^{kt}$ for each. (b) Set them equal and solve for $t$. (c) Set $P_1 e^{k_1 t} = P_2 e^{k_2 t}$ and show $t$ exists when $k_1 > k_2$.

Show Answer

(a) Population functions: $$P_A(t) = 50e^{0.015t}$$ $$P_B(t) = 200e^{0.005t}$$

(b) Set equal: $$50e^{0.015t} = 200e^{0.005t}$$ $$e^{0.015t - 0.005t} = 4$$ $$e^{0.01t} = 4$$ $$t = \frac{\ln 4}{0.01} = 100\ln 4 \approx 138.6 \text{ years}$$

(c) For $P_1 e^{k_1 t} = P_2 e^{k_2 t}$: $$\frac{P_1}{P_2} = e^{(k_2 - k_1)t}$$ $$t = \frac{\ln(P_1/P_2)}{k_2 - k_1} = \frac{\ln(P_2/P_1)}{k_1 - k_2}$$

Since $P_1 < P_2$ (so $\ln(P_2/P_1) > 0$) and $k_1 > k_2$ (so $k_1 - k_2 > 0$), we have $t > 0$.

Thus a positive time $t$ always exists when the faster-growing population starts smaller. $\square$

CCI-Style Conceptual Questions

Question 1: A population has a relative growth rate of 3% per year. Does this mean the population increases by exactly 3% of its initial value each year?

Answer

No. A 3% relative growth rate means the population grows continuously at 3% of its current value. After one year, the population is $P_0 e^{0.03} \approx 1.0305P_0$, about 3.05% more than the initial value. The difference grows larger over longer periods.

Question 2: If population A doubles every 10 years and population B doubles every 20 years, is A's growth rate exactly twice B's?

Answer

Yes! Doubling time $T_d = \frac{\ln 2}{k}$, so $k = \frac{\ln 2}{T_d}$.

Therefore $k_A = 2k_B$.

Question 3: A population grows from 1000 to 2000 in 5 years. Without any calculation, estimate how long it will take to grow from 2000 to 4000.

Answer

5 years. In exponential growth, doubling time is constant. If it took 5 years to double from 1000 to 2000, it will take another 5 years to double from 2000 to 4000.

Mastery Checklist

Mental Model

The "Copying Machine" Analogy:

Imagine every organism can make one copy of itself per time unit. With 100 organisms, you get 100 copies. With 1000 organisms, you get 1000 copies. The more you have, the more you produce—leading to explosive growth. The growth rate $k$ is like the "copying efficiency" of the population.

Still Confused?

If you're struggling with... Review this
The general solution $y = Ce^{kt}$ Exponential Growth ODE
Solving $e^{kt} = c$ for $t$ Natural Logarithm
When exponential models break down Logistic Growth

Connections

Looking back:

Looking ahead:

Real-world connections:


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Exponential Growth ODE Chapter 6 Skills Half-Life & Decay

Last updated: 2026-01-22